Bitcoin has experienced a record decline for six consecutive weeks, and market sentiment among traders and analysts remains extremely pessimistic. According to the analytical company K33, the current market situation is considered one of the most extreme in the entire history of cryptocurrency.
This is reported by Business • Media
Bearish Sentiment and Historical Decline
Over the past five months, Bitcoin has shown a persistent decline, marking one of the longest series of losses on record. Analysts at K33 point out that the derivatives market is in a state of deep pessimism, with open interest in futures on CME Group falling to a two-year low. Significant pressure on the price has been caused by mass sell-offs from long-term holders and institutional investors, who have reduced their positions by approximately 100,000 BTC.
Additionally, in the fourth quarter of 2025, the supply of coins held for more than six months decreased. The market also noted a negative funding rate for perpetual futures — this is only the tenth such instance since 2018, indicating the dominance of short positions and trading at a discount to the spot price.
The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to 26.84, which is the third lowest value in Bitcoin’s history.
Potential for Reversal and Growth Prospects
Despite the current pressure, analysts at K33 do not see grounds for mass selling of Bitcoin at these levels. Vetle Lunde, head of the research department, emphasizes that such deep overselling often precedes the beginning of new growth phases. According to his estimates, past periods of negative funding were accompanied by an average return of about 13% after 30 days, with a probability of a positive outcome at 56%. Over longer time horizons (90 and 180 days), the average returns reached 62% and 101% respectively, with the probability of success reaching 78%.
Lunde also notes that Bitcoin has remained resilient even amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Despite a sharp rise in oil and gas prices following military actions between the U.S., Israel, and Iran, as well as declines in stock markets, Bitcoin has shown moderate growth.
According to the analyst, a significant portion of the risks has already been priced in. Institutional exposure on CME has decreased by 35%, and investors in spot ETFs have reduced their positions by approximately 90,000 BTC over the past five months.
“The worst is behind us, now we wait,” Lunde stated.
The expert concludes that the current market situation is more conducive to accumulating Bitcoin than selling it.