Economist Lyn Alden stated that the likelihood of a major capitulation in the cryptocurrency market remains low at present, as the sector has not yet reached a state of euphoria. In her opinion, the current market situation does not align with the conditions that typically precede significant crashes.
This is reported by Business • Media
Macroeconomic Factors and Investor Sentiment
Alden noted that this year’s cycle in the cryptocurrency market is significantly different from previous ones. It is more dependent on global economic trends and investor interest than on the classic four-year rhythm associated with halving. She emphasized that growth and corrections may last longer than traditional models predict.
Her position resonates with the views of other experts. For instance, Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan also does not expect a return to a clear four-year dynamic and forecasts a prolonged period of market activity in the coming years. Meanwhile, Sigma Capital’s CEO Vinit Budhka does not rule out a deeper decline, including a drop in Bitcoin’s value by 65-70% over the next two years.
A Realistic View on Market Cycles
Alden emphasized that markets rarely move according to traders’ expectations. She noted that outcomes are often “not as good as optimists expect, and not as bad as pessimists expect.”
actual results are usually “not as good as optimists expect, and not as bad as pessimists expect.”
Currently, the market is characterized by cautious sentiment. After reaching an all-time high in October, Bitcoin has retraced to around $82,000, reigniting discussions about risks for investors.
Alden urged not to view bullish trends as a guarantee of growth. She stressed that the market is not obligated to repeat historical scenarios, and participants must build realistic strategies without succumbing to the illusion of inevitable growth.
Despite the current correction, the economist maintains a moderately optimistic long-term outlook. She expects Bitcoin to potentially return to around $100,000 by 2026 and also allows for the possibility of new all-time highs in 2026 or 2027.
It is worth noting that author of “Rich Dad Poor Dad” Robert Kiyosaki recently reported that he sold his Bitcoins for $2.25 million.