JPMorgan Chase analysts believe that the price of Bitcoin at $94,000 is an important support level for the market, as this amount currently reflects the cost of mining the first cryptocurrency. According to the bank’s experts, this limits the potential for further price declines from current levels.
This is reported by Business • Media
Mining Costs as a Price Support Factor
In their analytical note, the team led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou notes that there has been a significant increase in Bitcoin network difficulty over the past two months, which, in turn, has led to rising mining costs. According to their calculations, the production cost of Bitcoin currently stands at around $94,000, and this level traditionally serves as both technical and psychological support for the market.
“The cost of Bitcoin empirically serves as a minimum price boundary, so a cost of $94,000 indicates very limited downside from the current level of about $102,300.”
Analysts emphasize that the ratio between Bitcoin’s market price and its mining costs is currently slightly above the 1.0 mark, meaning it is near the lower end of the historical range.
Optimistic Forecasts and Comparisons to Gold
Despite the limited potential for decline, JPMorgan Chase maintains a positive outlook for Bitcoin, expecting it to rise to $170,000 over the next 6–12 months. This estimate is based on a volatility-adjusted comparison of the cryptocurrency to gold. According to the bank’s calculations, Bitcoin currently consumes about 1.8 times more risk capital than gold, and its market capitalization of $2.1 trillion needs to increase by another 67% to reach parity with $6.2 trillion in private investments in gold.
In previous forecasts, JPMorgan Chase had estimated Bitcoin’s potential at $165,000 by the end of the year; however, it now acknowledges that due to a wave of liquidations and negative market sentiment, reaching this mark within the set timeframe is unlikely. Earlier in August, the bank also predicted a price increase to $126,000, after which Bitcoin set a historical high of over $126,200 before experiencing a massive wave of liquidations in October.
Analysts at Standard Chartered forecast Bitcoin will rise to $200,000 by the end of 2025, pointing to the growing role of ETFs and institutional demand. Canary Capital’s Steven McClurg expects an increase to $150,000, while SkyBridge Capital’s founder Anthony Scaramucci believes that by the end of 2025, Bitcoin could trade in the range of $180,000–$200,000. Network economist Timothy Peterson suggests that the asset will reach $160,000 by Christmas, and Tephra Digital specialists forecast a range of $167,000–$185,000 by the end of 2025 or in the first half of 2026, focusing on Bitcoin’s correlation with gold and the M2 money supply.
Entrepreneur Robert Kiyosaki also expects Bitcoin to reach $200,000 by the end of 2025, emphasizing the importance of psychology in investors’ financial success.
It is worth noting that on the night of November 14, the Bitcoin price fell below $96,000 for the first time in over six months, and the liquidation volume for the day exceeded $1.1 billion.