Renowned on-chain analyst Willy Woo has suggested that the price of Bitcoin could reach a bottom in the range of $46,000 to $54,000, referencing historical market models. According to him, these indicators also allow for an assessment of the duration of the current phase in the cryptocurrency market.
This is reported by Business • Media
Key Models and Their Predictions
In the chart analyzed by Woo, the orange line shows the ratio of capital held in Bitcoin. According to the expert’s estimate, this indicator has been declining since November and currently values Bitcoin at approximately $54,200. Woo also highlighted the CVDD Floor model, which currently signals a potential bottom level around $45,500.
Limitations of the Models and the Impact of Macrorisks
Willy Woo emphasized that such analytical models are based on historical data formed during a period of dominance of the upward trend in risky assets. He warned that if the global macroeconomic trend changes, a deeper decline could be possible, as there are insufficient historical examples of bear markets for accurate forecasting.
“It shows only part of the picture. The real alpha lies in understanding capital rotation and macrostructure,” he noted.
Another user on X criticized the analysis approach based solely on the BTC/USD chart, highlighting that fundamental market processes do not always reflect in standard price charts.
Recall that previously, Willy Woo warned of the likelihood of a “bull trap” when Bitcoin was rising to $80,000, and he also expressed pessimistic forecasts regarding the dynamics of the crypto market in 2026.