In the first half of 2025, the federal budget deficit of the Russian Federation reached ₽3.7 trillion, which is 97% of the planned figure for the entire year. The main reason for this increase in the deficit was the decline in oil and gas revenues: in May and June, budget revenues from this sector were 35% lower than in the same period last year.
This is reported by Business • Media
Economic dynamics and recession risks
In the first quarter of the current year, the real gross domestic product of the Russian Federation contracted by 0.6% on a quarterly basis. This indicates that the Russian economy is approaching recession. Analysts note that constraints in the labor and investment sectors will continue to restrain economic growth throughout 2025 and deepen fiscal risks for the country.
Business closures and future forecasts
According to Rosstat, in the first six months of 2025, 141,000 companies ceased operations in Russia, while only 95,000 new businesses were registered. For the first time since 2022, the number of business closures exceeded the number of new registrations. The highest number of closures was observed in the trade, construction, and manufacturing sectors.
Thus, “mortality” of businesses in the Russian Federation has exceeded “birth rate” for the first time since 2022.
The Central Bank of the Russian Federation forecasts that the country’s economic growth in 2025 will not exceed 1-2%. By the end of the year, growth rates are expected to gradually slow down, and in 2026, even more modest growth is anticipated — within 0.5-1.5%.