Analysts at the investment company ICU have revised their forecast for Ukraine’s economic growth in 2025, lowering it to 3% from the previous 3.4%. This decision was made based on an analysis of the economic situation, particularly the actual GDP growth of Ukraine, which was only 2.9% in 2024. This figure turned out to be significantly lower than the market had expected and the company’s previous forecasts.
This is reported by Business • Media
According to the review, economic growth in Ukraine in 2024 significantly declined due to a sharp drop in crop yields, which negatively impacted agriculture and the food industry. Additionally, a decrease in government consumption, particularly due to a reduction in the state budget deficit to 24% of GDP compared to 27% in the previous year, also became a significant factor restraining economic development.
Prospects for Economic Recovery
Analysts expressed hope that agricultural production will increase in 2025, provided that no adverse weather conditions arise. However, they also noted that further cuts in government spending, which will remain relatively proportional to GDP, could hinder economic recovery.
“We believe that our previous GDP growth forecast for 2025 was somewhat optimistic, so we are lowering it to 3%. We also do not expect significant acceleration in the pace of economic recovery next year unless there is a sharp improvement in the security situation,” the analysts concluded.
Conclusions
Thus, the new forecasts from ICU indicate caution regarding the future economic growth of Ukraine, emphasizing the need for improvements in the domestic situation and stability.