The International Monetary Fund has not changed its forecast for the Ukrainian economy, as the organization anticipates that the war will last at least until the end of 2026. This position was stated by Alfred Kammer, head of the IMF’s European Department.
This is reported by Business • Media
Economic Recovery and the National Bank’s Position
At the same time, the head of the National Bank of Ukraine, Andriy Pyshny, emphasized that there are currently no grounds for claims of economic stagnation. According to him, a gradual recovery is being observed: in the first half of the year, GDP growth of 0.8% was recorded, and for the year, a growth of 2% is expected according to the National Bank’s July forecast.
“The banking system is liquid, profitable, and well-capitalized, with business lending increasing by 30% per year. Investments in hryvnia bonds and the active revival of investment lending indicate confidence in the economy. The population has invested nearly ₴60 billion in hryvnia bonds – this is 360% more than before the full-scale war,” he noted.
Pyshny also stressed that one of the key tasks of the National Bank is to develop capital markets to attract private investments, which will allow the country to transition from a survival mode to sustainable economic growth. Despite the ongoing full-scale war, reforms in Ukraine continue, and inflation and the situation in the currency market remain under control.
Challenges for Business and Business Activity
At the same time, even with the stable operation of most enterprises, the level of business confidence in the future has decreased. The main problems for companies have become labor shortages and rising prices, which are currently affecting businesses more significantly than shelling. In September, the business activity recovery index fell to 0.05 after an August figure of 0.08, indicating a certain slowdown in economic dynamics.