In November 2025, India plans to import a record volume of oil from the Russian Federation, the highest in the last five months. This surge is due to Indian oil refining companies securing necessary supplies by November 21, when additional U.S. restrictions on cooperation with Russian oil producers came into effect. The decision was also influenced by new European Union regulations, which state that starting in 2026, petroleum products for the EU market must be produced exclusively from non-Russian oil.
This is reported by Business • Media
Possible Decline in Imports in December
Experts predict that in December, India’s imports of Russian oil may fall to their lowest level in the last three years. The reason is the transition of oil refining companies to alternative suppliers to avoid violating Western sanctions. At the same time, India has managed to find a way to partially maintain supplies – the country’s banks have developed criteria for transactions that do not contradict existing sanctions and do not involve individuals or companies on the so-called “blacklist.” According to the new requirements, transactions involving Russian oil can be conducted in UAE dirhams or Chinese yuan.
Reduction in Hydrocarbon Exports and the Impact of Sanctions
Western sanctions have already affected hydrocarbon exports from Russia. According to S&P Global, in November of this year, supplies of Russian petrochemical raw materials to key Asian countries decreased by 57–80%. In particular, shipments of naphtha to India fell by 57% to 60,000 tons, to China by 73.3% (54,000 tons), and to Taiwan by 79.6% (37,000 tons). It is expected that India will completely cease importing Russian naphtha, and Formosa Petrochemical from Taiwan is also considering the option of abandoning Russian supplies.
Additionally, the number of Greek tankers transporting Russian oil has dropped to a minimum since the onset of the full-scale war between Russia and Ukraine. During the first weeks of November, only three out of 65 shipments of Russian crude oil were transported by vessels owned by Greek operators.
“Thanks to discounts on oil for China, Beijing has managed to save $20 billion during the years of the war between Russia and Ukraine. Last year, Russia accounted for nearly 19% of China’s energy resource imports worth $100 billion and became the largest oil supplier with a share of about 20%. Overall, discounts for India and China could have cost Russian oil producers $33 billion.”
Thus, despite Russia’s attempts to maintain its market share, sanctions and new regulations are gradually limiting the aggressor country’s ability to export oil and petroleum products to Asia.