In July 2025, consumer inflation in Ukraine slowed to 14.1% year-on-year. Compared to the previous month, prices even decreased by 0.2%. The main reason for this trend was the faster decline in vegetable prices, linked to the arrival of the new harvest. This led to real inflation being lower than the forecast made by the National Bank of Ukraine for July.
This is reported by Business • Media
Price Dynamics in Different Market Segments
The rate of price growth for processed foods decreased to 18% year-on-year. Inflation in the services sector slowed to 14%, which is attributed to less pronounced pressure in the labor market. Meanwhile, in the non-food goods segment, the annual price increase was only 3.2%, demonstrating a trend toward stabilization.
“The NBU’s forecast suggests a further decline in inflation both by the end of this year and in subsequent periods. Factors contributing to the decrease in inflation include monetary policy measures, gradual increases in harvests, and moderate external price pressure,” the National Bank added.
Factors Influencing Inflation Processes
Former NBU Council Chairman Bohdan Danilyshyn emphasized that inflation in the country is shaped by both inflationary and disinflationary factors. Among the inflationary factors are high producer price growth rates, adverse weather conditions, significant budget deficits, increases in certain tax rates, partial recovery of deferred demand, and the weakening of the hryvnia against the euro. Factors that restrain inflation include slowing economic growth (real GDP increased by only 0.8% over the past six months compared to the same period in 2024), stability of the exchange rate due to NBU currency interventions, the maintenance of a moratorium on raising certain utility tariffs, and limited demand due to ongoing military actions.
It is forecasted that in the coming months, annual inflation in Ukraine will decrease, primarily due to the base effect compared to last year.