Analysts from one of the leading American banks, JPMorgan, suggest that a significant oversupply may emerge in the global oil market in the coming years, leading to a substantial decrease in Brent oil prices. According to their estimates, by the end of 2027, the price per barrel could fall below $40.
This is reported by Business • Media
Forecasts of surplus and potential market consequences
According to the analytical report, the potential surplus of oil in the market could reach 2.8 million barrels per day in 2026. In 2027, this figure is expected to decrease slightly to 2.7 million barrels. Such a surplus could drive the price of Brent down to $42 per barrel in 2027, and by the end of that year, it could even drop to around $30 if there is no production cut to stabilize the situation.
“A surplus of this magnitude could lower the price of Brent to $42 per barrel in 2027, and by the end of the year – even to around $30, unless there is intervention to limit supply.”
If prices fall to such levels, it will complicate the profitability of production at many oil fields in the U.S. However, JPMorgan specialists believe that such a scenario is unlikely to fully materialize. The bank maintains its main forecast for Brent prices at $58 per barrel for 2026 and $57 for 2027. Experts assume that oil-producing countries will agree to voluntarily cut production to support market stability.
Increase in global oil inventories
Meanwhile, according to the International Energy Agency, global oil inventories increased by 77.7 million barrels in September, reaching the highest level since July 2021. Overall, since the beginning of the year, oil inventories have risen by an average of 313 million barrels.