The international rating agency Moody’s has maintained the long-term issuer ratings of the Ukrainian government in foreign and national currency at Ca. This is one of the lowest levels in the Moody’s system, indicating a very high risk of default. In its explanation, Moody’s emphasizes that the armed aggression of the Russian Federation continues to pose serious and prolonged challenges for the Ukrainian economy and public finances.
This is reported by Business • Media
Economic Forecasts for 2025
According to the agency’s estimates, in 2025, Ukraine’s economic growth rate will slow to 2.5% compared to 2.9% in 2024. The state budget deficit is projected to be 19% of GDP, which is higher than the 17% in 2024. It is also expected that the state debt will exceed 110% of GDP by the end of the year, while in 2024 this figure stands at 90%. The main source of financing the deficit will remain external financial assistance.
Conditions for Rating Review
Moody’s believes that even if Ukraine reaches an agreement with Russia on a ceasefire, significant economic recovery will not occur without providing Ukraine with reliable security guarantees. The agency warns that a downgrade is possible if liquidity problems worsen, economic pressure increases due to the war, Ukraine fails to meet the conditions of the IMF program, or pro-Russian political forces come to power.
The rating could be raised if the war ends and the economy recovers, but “we see a low probability of such a scenario in the near term,” the forecast states.