The National Bank of Ukraine has updated its macroeconomic forecast, stating that in 2025, the country’s real gross domestic product will grow by 3.1%. However, this figure is somewhat lower than the expectations voiced at the beginning of the year. The main reasons for this adjustment remain the uncertainty due to the full-scale war and the difficult situation in the labor market, where there is a significant shortage of skilled workers.
This is reported by Business • Media
Challenges for the Ukrainian economy
Among the key factors restraining economic growth, experts from the National Bank note the limited production capacities, which have been exacerbated by the destruction caused by hostilities. Businesses remain cautious regarding capital investments for expanding production. The situation is further complicated by the destruction of gas infrastructure due to Russian shelling, which has led to a reduction in domestic gas production and an increase in import volumes.
Factors supporting growth
Despite the challenging circumstances, one of the main drivers of economic growth remains consumer demand, supported by the increase in real incomes and wages of the population. High budget expenditures on defense also play a significant role, as a considerable portion of these funds is directed towards purchasing products from Ukrainian enterprises. The private sector, despite its caution regarding new investments, has continued to invest in infrastructure reconstruction and meeting the country’s energy needs throughout the year.
“According to the NBU’s forecasts, in 2025, Ukraine’s real GDP will grow by 3.1% – this is somewhat less than expected at the beginning of the year. The economy is primarily restrained by uncertainty and the prolonged war. It is noted that there remains a significant shortage of skilled labor.”