The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released an updated forecast for Ukraine’s economy, examining two main scenarios for developments in 2026: peace without security guarantees and the continuation of war.
This is reported by Business • Media
Peace Scenario: Growth Possible Only with Guarantees and Resources
The IMF’s baseline scenario assumes the end of Russia’s war against Ukraine by the end of 2025. In this case, according to the IMF’s assessment, the Ukrainian economy could accelerate its growth rate to 4.5% in 2026. However, the organization’s experts emphasize that reliable security guarantees and sufficient financial resources are necessary for effective recovery and defense.
“A peaceful resolution without reliable security guarantees and/or sufficient financial resources for recovery and defense could lead to adverse economic and social consequences,” the specialists warned.
According to the IMF, the lack of certainty regarding security will slow down the return of refugees, the pace of reconstruction in the country, and will also affect the volume of foreign direct investment needed for economic recovery.
Negative Scenario: Delay in Peace and Economic Decline
The alternative, negative scenario from the IMF is based on the assumption that the war will continue at least until the second quarter of 2026 due to a lack of significant progress in peace negotiations. The organization’s updated forecast indicates that the main economic shock may occur in the third quarter of 2025.
In this situation, a 1% decline in Ukraine’s real gross domestic product (GDP) is expected in 2025, with no economic growth in 2026. Additionally, Ukraine’s financial needs will increase by $12.4 billion.
Thus, the stability and further development of the Ukrainian economy directly depend on both the conclusion of the war and the provision of reliable security guarantees and substantial international financial support.