The National Bank of Ukraine has decided to keep the key rate at 15.5% for the first time since early March 2025. This marks the sixth consecutive decision by the regulator to maintain this rate.
This is reported by Business • Media
Reasons for Maintaining the Rate and Inflation Expectations
The National Bank emphasizes that this step is aimed at supporting investor interest in hryvnia financial instruments, ensuring stability in the foreign exchange market, and controlling inflation expectations with the goal of gradually achieving an inflation target of 5% in the medium term.
“In the coming months, inflation will continue to decrease, although at a more moderate pace due to the waning effects of the comparison base,” the regulator noted, reminding that in November, consumer and core inflation slowed to 9.3% year-on-year, yet inflation expectations remain elevated.
According to the National Bank, in November 2025, annual consumer and core inflation slowed to 9.3%. At the same time, inflation expectations still remain quite high.
External Financial Support and Risks to the Economy
Since the beginning of the year, Ukraine has received $45.8 billion in official funding. By the end of 2025, an additional $5 billion is expected to arrive. This external support allows for the maintenance of international reserves at an adequate level and avoids the emission of hryvnias for budget financing. However, the National Bank draws attention to the uncertainty regarding the volumes of international assistance for 2026-2027.
Among the main risks to economic stability, the regulator identified the course of the war, potential increases in budget expenditures, destruction of energy infrastructure, and a deepening labor shortage.
It should be noted that the National Bank has kept the key rate at 15.5% since March 2025. Prior to this, from mid-December 2024, the regulator raised it three times. Earlier, for six months, the rate remained at 13%, to which it was consistently reduced from 25% in seven stages, starting from July 2023.