In the first half of April 2025, global and European price trends for hot-rolled coil underwent changes influenced by market factors and internal economic processes. This reflects current trends in the metallurgy and automotive industries that both importers and producers need to consider.
This is reported by Business • Media
Price Changes in Europe
Prices for hot-rolled coil in Southern Europe decreased by €20 per ton, reaching €545 per ton CIF as of April 11. According to the analytical company Kallanish, the market was impacted by a large amount of uncustomed imported products, particularly from Vietnam, which significantly depressed prices. Given this situation, European steel mills are concerned that if prices continue to rise, imported hot-rolled coil will become more attractive to buyers, despite import duties.
“Vietnam’s quota for duty-free import of hot-rolled coil into the EU was exceeded in the first quarter, at which point the additional tariff for Vietnamese producers was 8-10%. It is expected that after the correction of the quota mechanism in March, the tariff will rise again in the second quarter,” experts comment.
Demand and Forecasts
Despite price fluctuations, demand for hot-rolled coil in key industries remained low. Specifically, the number of new car registrations in the EU decreased by 2.6% in January and by 3.4% in February, totaling 831.2 thousand and 853.67 thousand units, respectively. Meanwhile, the analytical agency S&P Global raised its forecast for car production in the EU for 2025 by 63 thousand units in March, related to the revision of rules by the European Commission regarding environmental standards, which have been extended to 2028.
In the US, prices for hot-rolled coil remained stable at $975 per ton EXW as of April 11. American steel mills are refraining from raising prices to avoid losses in imports. New car sales in the US in March totaled 1.56 million units, exceeding initial forecasts, driven by the introduction of additional tariffs of 25% on imported cars starting April 2. This also contributed to an increase in the sales forecast for 2025 to 17.8 million cars.
Market Situation in Other Regions
In India, prices for hot-rolled coil increased by $22 per ton to $592 FOB as of April 11, related to the start of the new financial year on April 1. In China, prices for hot-rolled coil decreased to $470 per ton FOB as of April 11, down from $480 at the end of March. This indicates an oversupply of metal, which does not help reduce inventories and pressure on prices, despite an uptick in exports. For the January-March 2025 period, China’s metal product exports increased by 6.3% compared to last year, reaching 27.43 million tons, the highest level since 2016.