As of the end of the first nine months of 2025, the trade volume between China and Russia has decreased to $163.6 billion, which is 9.4% less compared to the same period last year. Despite this, the dependence of the Russian Federation on China continues to strengthen.
This is reported by Business • Media
Decline in Exports and Growing Vulnerability of the Russian Economy
Chinese exports to Russia have decreased by 11.3% to $73.6 billion. At the same time, Russian exports to China fell by 7.7% to $90 billion. The main factor behind the decline in trade volumes is the drop in energy prices, particularly the cost of Russian energy exports to China, which has decreased by 18.9% (by $14 billion). The volumes of oil exports from Russia to China have decreased by 8.1% in physical terms and by 21% in monetary terms due to the fall in Brent prices.
The dependence of the Russian economy on the export of energy resources and metals, the main market for which remains China, exacerbates Russia’s vulnerability to changes in demand in the Chinese market, making its economy increasingly reliant on decisions made in Beijing.
Changes in Oil Supply and New Gas Project
Supplies of Russian oil to China via the Arctic Ocean are slowing down, particularly due to sanctions. The duration of voyages from Russian Arctic and Baltic ports to northern China via the Northern Sea Route has increased by three weeks this year compared to last year. Additionally, in November, China significantly reduced its imports of Russian oil, preferring raw materials from Saudi Arabia. Currently, the import volume from Russia stands at 926,000 barrels per day — a 36% decrease from October, when supplies were 1.45 million barrels per day. In comparison, oil imports from Saudi Arabia in November rose to 1.78 million barrels per day, up from 1.2 million barrels the previous month. Thus, Russia will lose its leadership among oil suppliers to China in favor of Saudi Arabia.
The dependence of the Russian economy on the export of energy resources and metals, most of which are sold to China, makes it increasingly vulnerable to fluctuations in demand in the Chinese market and strengthens its dependence on Beijing.
At the same time, Russian “Gazprom” has accelerated the construction of the “Power of Siberia 2” gas pipeline to China, which is expected to transport 50 billion cubic meters of gas per year. This project is seen as the only real opportunity for Russia to partially compensate for the losses of gas exports to Europe. According to reports, Gazprom engineers are already working on the complex technical aspects of constructing this gas pipeline.