The Board of the National Bank of Ukraine has maintained the key interest rate at 15.5% for the fifth consecutive time. This decision was made against the backdrop of persistent high inflation expectations, despite a slight decrease in inflation in recent months. Among the main reasons influencing this decision, the NBU noted the increase in energy deficit, rising budget needs, and the escalation of pro-inflation risks. Furthermore, the ongoing full-scale war remains a decisive factor for macroeconomic stability.
This is reported by Business • Media
Tight monetary conditions and inflation targets
“The NBU will maintain relatively tight monetary conditions to preserve the stability of the currency market and the attractiveness of savings in hryvnias, and to ensure a sustainable reduction in inflation to the target of 5% in the policy horizon,” the National Bank added.
The National Bank stated that it will continue to maintain tight monetary conditions to ensure the stability of the currency market, enhance the attractiveness of savings in the national currency, and gradually reduce inflation to 5%.
Economic growth and inflation forecasts
The regulator has revised its forecast for Ukraine’s economic growth for 2025 for the fourth time this year, lowering it to 1.9%. At the same time, gradual acceleration of economic development is expected in the coming years due to increased harvests and the activation of investments in recovery projects and the defense sector. Further integration of Ukraine with the European Union is expected to provide an additional impetus for investment activity.
According to the updated NBU forecast, Ukraine’s real GDP is expected to grow by 2% in 2026 and by 2.8% in 2027. Regarding inflation, the National Bank expects it to decrease to 9.2% by the end of the current year, to 6.6% in 2026, and to 5% by the end of 2027, which aligns with the regulator’s long-term goal.
Additionally, the National Bank has raised its forecast for international reserves: in 2026, they could reach $52.2 billion instead of the previously expected $44.7 billion, and in 2027, $59.2 billion (previously $45.2 billion). This increase in reserves is projected on the condition of stable inflows of international financial assistance, particularly due to the reparations loan based on frozen Russian assets.