The decline in Urals crude oil prices could significantly limit the revenues of the Russian budget, but it is unlikely to stop the war. At the same time, due to slow progress in Russian-Ukrainian peace negotiations, U.S. President Donald Trump is considering the possibility of imposing additional sanctions on Russian exports. One such measure could be restrictions on oil exports from the ports of Ust-Luga, Primorsk, and Novorossiysk, which would halt 50% to 75% of maritime supplies of Russian oil and reduce the Russian budget revenues by approximately 15%.
This is reported by Business • Media
Furthermore, the Russian government plans to lower the gas price for China, despite record losses for Gazprom. In 2024, gas supplies to China cost $267.6 per 1000 cubic meters—30% cheaper than for European and Turkish buyers. It is expected that by 2025, the price for China will decrease to $247.3, while the price for Europe and Turkey will rise to $403. By 2026, the Russian government intends to reduce the gas price for China to $241.8 to maintain competitiveness and balance revenues.
International implications and political pressure
Implementing restrictions on oil and gas could serve as a form of political pressure on Russia from the U.S. and other countries seeking to intensify sanctions in the context of the war in Ukraine. Such a move could significantly impact the Russian economy and international energy markets, increasing pressure on the Russian leadership to end the war and seek a diplomatic solution.