According to the April report from the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE), Ukraine’s GDP is expected to grow by approximately 3% in 2025. After the war ends, economic growth rates are anticipated to accelerate significantly in 2026-2027. One of the key factors contributing to the maintenance of macroeconomic stability will be the decision of the G7 countries to provide Ukraine with $50 billion through the ERA mechanism.
This is reported by Business • Media
During 2025-2027, Ukraine needs to attract about $92 billion in external financing. In particular, over $58 billion is planned to be received this year. With such support, the country will be able not only to cover its budget deficit but also to increase its foreign exchange reserves. It is forecasted that the volume of external loans in 2025-2027 will exceed $72 billion, which will allow financing a significant portion of the state budget deficit.
Foreign investors are expected to return to the domestic government debt market within the next two years, and there will also be an opportunity to issue eurobonds as early as 2027 or even sooner. It is projected that the state budget deficit will decrease from 16% of GDP in 2025 to 10.2% in 2026 and to 6.4% in 2027, while budget expenditures will decrease by approximately 15% after the war ends due to a gradual reduction in defense and security spending.
The Need for Investment for Economic Growth
To ensure productivity and sustainable economic development, Ukraine needs to attract $300 billion in investments over the next 10 years. This level of investment is critically important for the recovery of the economy and the improvement of living standards for the population.