According to a study by the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE), the baseline scenario regarding the average birth rate anticipates a gradual increase in the coefficients from 1 to 1.5 children per woman. However, this level still remains below what is necessary for population replacement. As calculations by the UN indicate, if appropriate measures are not taken by the government, Ukraine’s population could shrink to 32 million by 2050.
This is reported by Business • Media
Age Ratio and Its Consequences
Simultaneously, the decrease in population will affect the disruption of age group ratios. It is noted that by 2070, the number of elderly people (60+ years) will exceed the number of the working-age population (18-59 years) – 11.1 million compared to 10.9 million. This means that the nation will reach a critical level of aging, which will create significant pressure on healthcare, social support, and pension systems.
Current Population Data
It is known that Ukraine’s population has decreased from 44.3 to 37.9 million people between 2021 and 2024. This has occurred primarily due to significant emigration and a negative balance between birth and death rates. In April, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its population forecast for Ukraine to 33.9 million people by 2030.