Matt Hougan, the Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise Asset Management, shared his insights on the development of the crypto market, highlighting four key factors that are currently overlooked by most analysts and have yet to be reflected in the prices of digital assets. Among them are the potential for more active Bitcoin purchases by governments, the prospects of the US dollar devaluation, further reduction in Bitcoin volatility, and the potential revival of initial coin offerings (ICOs).
This is reported by Business • Media
Critical Factors Underestimated in the Cryptocurrency Market
Matt Hougan notes that experts primarily focus on traditional market drivers: changes in regulatory policies, the growing popularity of stablecoins, institutional investments through ETFs, and the development of the Ethereum ecosystem, which supports the dynamics of altcoins. However, even these already known factors, in the analyst’s opinion, are underestimated by the market.
However, the greatest potential for growth, Hougan believes, lies in trends that have not yet found widespread reflection in pricing. Among them are strategic accumulation of crypto assets by countries, the declining value of the dollar amid changes in Federal Reserve policy, a sustained decrease in Bitcoin volatility following the launch of spot ETFs, and the possible return of the ICO wave, which could attract new capital to the market.
Government Accumulation of Cryptocurrencies and Macroeconomic Trends
According to Bitwise’s forecast, the key players in shaping demand for Bitcoin are governments, ETFs, and large corporations. Since the beginning of 2025, ETFs and corporations have already purchased 183,126 and 354,744 BTC respectively, which, according to Hougan, has contributed to a price increase of over 27%. Meanwhile, governments have not yet begun mass accumulation of cryptocurrency, although this factor could become the main market catalyst by 2026.
“Let me clarify: I don’t think we will see a wave of nationwide announcements by the end of the year. However, I suspect there will be more — enough to make this the most significant potential catalyst for 2026. Just the awareness of this could significantly raise prices,” he stated.
Regarding macroeconomic factors, Hougan emphasizes that Bitcoin is trading close to historical highs under conditions of tight monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. At the same time, political rhetoric in the US is changing: Donald Trump advocates for policy easing, and his nominee for the Federal Reserve Board, Stephen Moore, suggests rethinking the role of the dollar as a reserve currency and allows for additional issuance. This could contribute to further dollar weakening and, consequently, support Bitcoin’s upward trend.
Bitcoin Volatility and the Potential of ICO 2.0
Since the launch of spot ETFs, Bitcoin’s price volatility has significantly decreased and is now comparable to stocks of giants like Nvidia. This increases the attractiveness of cryptocurrency for asset managers: while Bitcoin’s share in portfolios was previously 1%, it has now risen to 5%.
Hougan also highlights the possibility of reviving the ICO practice. After a wave of fraudulent projects in 2018, many investors abandoned this tool; however, recent statements from the head of the SEC indicate potential for the return of ICOs to the market.
“If this happens [the revival of the ICO practice], I think it could become a significant growth catalyst. Crypto investors have historically been eager to invest in projects — both during the ICO boom and after it. The launch of a new ICO 2.0 market could attract significant new capital,” the expert believes.
In conclusion, Matt Hougan emphasizes that markets grow not only on positive news but specifically on those that have not yet been factored into asset prices. Such underrated trends may determine the dynamics of the crypto market in the coming months and years.