Analysts from one of the largest investment banks in the world, Goldman Sachs, predict a significant decrease in the price of Brent crude oil to approximately $50 per barrel by the end of 2026. The main reason for this is expected to be an increase in the oil surplus in the global market.
This is reported by Business • Media
Growth of oil surplus and its impact on prices
Experts forecast that over the next year, oil supply will consistently exceed demand. The surplus of “black gold” could reach an average of 1.8 million barrels per day, contributing to a nearly 800 million barrel increase in global inventories by the end of 2026. As a result, Brent oil prices are expected to remain close to current forward contracts until the end of 2025, but a sharp decline is anticipated in 2026 due to further inventory growth, particularly in OECD countries.
“OECD countries will account for about 33% of global oil reserves in 2026, combined with weaker demand in the OECD, this will impact the decline in Brent prices.”
The impact of China on the global oil market
Experts also highlight the situation in China: if the rate of increase in oil inventories in the country rises from 0.4 million to 0.8 million barrels per day since the beginning of the year, this could lead to an increase in the average Brent price in 2026. However, the overall trend, according to the bank, will remain negative for oil prices amid global surplus.
As of Wednesday, Brent oil futures were trading at around $67 per barrel. Goldman Sachs specialists believe that in the coming years, the market will remain under pressure from rising inventories and low demand, which may lead to further depreciation of “black gold.”