On the platform Polymarket, there has been a significant increase in the probability that the price of Bitcoin will drop below the $100,000 mark by the beginning of 2026. According to the latest data, this figure surged from 47% to 68% between August 24 and 26, 2025, reaching a new high since mid-July.
This is reported by Business • Media
Betting Trends and Market Correction
During the correction on August 26, the probability that the price of Bitcoin would fall below $100,000 reached 68%, but later decreased to 58%. This still remains the highest level in the past month and a half. It is worth noting that a drop from current price levels to below $113,000 represents a 13% correction, which corresponds to market recessions that were previously recorded in March 2020 and May 2021.
Expert Predictions and Reasons for Volatility
Against the backdrop of pessimistic expectations from Polymarket users, several experts are showing optimism regarding further Bitcoin growth. In particular, renowned economist Timothy Peterson predicts that Bitcoin could reach a new all-time high of $160,000 by the end of 2025. Similar positive assessments have been released by companies like Bernstein and Standard Chartered, which believe that the growth of the first cryptocurrency is supported by an influx of institutional capital and historical trends.
On August 26, 2025, the Bitcoin price fell below $109,000, likely due to active selling by large holders of the asset. Presto Research analyst Min Zhong noted that it is the large market players who significantly influence the dynamics of supply and demand.
“However, if these large holders start to aggressively liquidate their positions, the key question will be whether there are enough new participants to absorb this supply. If demand does not keep pace with the growth, a drop below $100,000 will become more likely,” he concluded.
At the time of preparing this material, Bitcoin is trading above $113,000 with a daily increase of 1.6%. A correction below $100,000 would correspond to a 13% drop, which historically coincided with key moments of market downturns.
