The International Energy Agency forecasts a significant increase in global oil stocks in 2026. According to the latest report, oil volumes will rise by 2.96 million barrels per day, exceeding the growth rates recorded at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic.
This is reported by Business • Media
Growth Rates of Demand and Supply
Oil demand in 2025 is expected to increase by only 680,000 barrels per day, the lowest figure since 2019. This is due to the slowdown of economies in major consuming countries such as China, India, and Brazil. In 2026, consumption is expected to grow by approximately 700,000 barrels per day, and by the end of the current decade, the growth rate of demand may plateau. In contrast, oil supply continues to increase at an accelerated pace.
Easing of OPEC+ Restrictions and Increased Production
OPEC+ member countries are actively lifting restrictions on oil production. By September 2025, production quotas will be raised by 2.2 million barrels per day. Additionally, the production forecast for non-cartel countries has been increased by another 100,000 barrels per day, allowing them to contribute an additional 1 million barrels to the global market. The United Arab Emirates has already increased its production to 3.5 million barrels per day.
Brent crude oil prices currently stand at around $66 per barrel, which is 12% lower than at the beginning of the year.
“If current market conditions persist, an oil surplus will develop, leading to a significant drop in prices.”