According to estimates by the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), the Ukrainian state budget has already missed out on at least $10 billion due to the absence of clear regulation in the cryptocurrency market. This conclusion was drawn in an August report by analysts, which details the main risks and challenges facing the country.
This is reported by Business • Media
Main Risks of Ukraine’s Cryptocurrency Market
- Activities of over-the-counter (OTC) platforms operating without proper oversight.
- Use of cryptocurrencies to purchase sanctioned goods that may end up in the Russian army.
- Financial operations through money mules, known in Ukraine as “drops.”
According to RUSI’s calculations, such schemes are causing monthly losses to the budget of about $24 million. Experts have identified activities on the messaging app Telegram as particularly dangerous, as it is actively used by Russian participants for illegal crypto operations, including drug trafficking.
“In response to the sharp increase in the use of virtual assets, new opportunities for illegal financial activities have emerged, particularly through money mules, which are commonly referred to as ‘drops’ in Ukraine,” the study states.
Legal Uncertainty and Market Prospects
Despite the fact that a law on “Virtual Assets” was passed in 2022, it has yet to come into effect due to unresolved issues regarding the taxation of cryptocurrencies. In April 2025, a draft law No. 10225-d was submitted to parliament, aimed at introducing licensing for crypto platforms, establishing capital requirements, transparency, KYC standards, and new reporting procedures. However, a defined regulator for this sector is still lacking.
Danilo Hetmantsev, head of the parliamentary Committee on Finance, Taxation and Customs Policy, noted that the consideration of the bill on the legalization of the cryptocurrency market is scheduled for September.
Experts emphasize the urgent need for action, as without proper legislative regulation, Ukraine risks becoming a hub for laundering Russian funds, while legitimate startups may face excessive tax pressure and corruption.
“Inaction could turn Ukraine into a center for laundering Russian funds, while simultaneously deterring legitimate startups with excessive taxation and corruption,” the authors stressed.
RUSI experts believe that effective oversight and the implementation of modern mechanisms could return up to $10 billion to the country’s budget. At the same time, the report emphasizes:
“Legislation is not a prerequisite for action,” RUSI concluded, calling for the development of public-private partnerships and the application of private tools to detect and curb illegal activities.
According to the Bureau of Economic Security of Ukraine, from 2013 to 2023, the country lost about 3 billion hryvnias in taxes from the activities of cryptocurrency exchanges established by residents. According to analytical material from the Ukraine Economic Outlook, prepared for KUNA, from 2016 to 2022, Ukraine’s losses due to the lack of cryptocurrency market regulation amounted to $48.8 billion in direct income and about $4 billion in tax revenues.
A separate study by Global Ledger for the Ministry of Digital Transformation confirmed that in just four years, the state missed out on 8.34 billion hryvnias in taxes. From users of a single centralized exchange, the budget could have collected between 1.31 and 6.53 billion hryvnias in personal income tax.