The European Commission predicts that the gradual process of returning refugees from Ukraine, who are under temporary protection in European Union countries, will begin as early as 2025.
This is reported by Business • Media
Dynamics of the Number of Ukrainians Under Temporary Protection in the EU
As of January 2025, the European Commission estimates that the number of Ukrainian citizens receiving temporary protection in the EU was around 4.3 million. Experts anticipate that this figure will remain stable throughout 2025, but by the end of the year it may decrease to 4.1 million, and by the end of 2026 to 3.8 million.
According to forecasts, the active influx of Ukrainian refugees into the EU labor market observed in 2022–2024 was one of the key factors contributing to the growth of the workforce in the region. However, in 2025 and 2026, this effect is likely to gradually diminish, which may impact economic processes in the member countries.
War and Economic Uncertainty
The economic consequences of Russia’s war against Ukraine remain extremely unpredictable and largely depend on the further development of the situation. The baseline scenario considered by the European Commission assumes the continuation of geopolitical tension in the region and the enforcement of sanctions against the Russian Federation at least until the end of 2026.
“Concerns about security have intensified as the war in Ukraine continues. Despite the efforts of the US and the EU, a robust peace agreement providing sufficient guarantees for Ukraine and the EU remains unattainable,” the EC noted.
The European Commission emphasizes that the prospects for ending the war remain uncertain, and security issues continue to influence refugees’ decisions regarding their return to Ukraine.