If the president signs the bill introducing export duties on rapeseed and soybean, domestic processing of alternative oilseed crops in Ukraine may increase. According to analysts’ forecasts, in the new season, rapeseed processing will amount to 500,000–550,000 tons, soybean – 2.7 million tons, and sunflower – 13.6–13.8 million tons.
This is reported by Business • Media
Impact of Export Duties on the Domestic Market
The introduction of export duties on soybean and rapeseed is likely to enhance the attractiveness of domestic prices for these crops for Ukrainian processors. However, several factors may hinder the growth of processing volumes. Among these factors are the expected decrease in the harvest of alternative oilseed crops, an increase in sunflower production, and current difficulties in selling processed products.
Forecasts for Rapeseed and Soybean
The current rapeseed harvesting campaign in Ukraine shows lower-than-expected yield figures. As of July 2025, the gross harvest of rapeseed is estimated at around 3 million tons, which is 18% less compared to the previous season. Therefore, the forecast for rapeseed processing remains at last year’s level but may be revised upwards.
Soybean processing is expected to increase by 3% and reach a record level for the industry, indicating the high potential of this market segment even amid changes in customs policy.
“The effect of export duties on soybean and rapeseed may make domestic prices for oilseeds more attractive for processors; however, there are several factors that may limit processing volumes, including the expected lower harvest of alternative oilseeds and a larger sunflower crop, as well as existing difficulties in selling processed products.”