The adjusted spent output profit ratio (aSOPR) for Bitcoin has dropped again to the level of 0.92–0.94. According to experts, such figures have historically been recorded during periods of heightened stress in a bear market.
This is reported by Business • Media
What Does the Decline in aSOPR Mean for Bitcoin
The aSOPR metric reflects whether coins are being moved on-chain at a profit or a loss. Values below 1 indicate that the asset is being sold at a loss, which is typical during capitulation periods or prolonged demand weakness. Historical statistics show that local market minima often formed when aSOPR was in the range of 0.92–0.93. It is during these moments that selling pressure increased, and the market underwent what is known as structural “cleansing” following a decline in cryptocurrency value.
“The adjusted spent output profit ratio (aSOPR) for Bitcoin has once again fallen to the range of 0.92–0.94. Historically, these values have been recorded during periods of increased stress in a bear market,” noted CryptoQuant.
Experts emphasize that unlike corrections within the market cycle, where aSOPR quickly recovers to 1, the current dynamics may indicate persistent market weakness. If the indicator does not return above one soon, it will increase the likelihood of the market transitioning from a local correction phase to a broader bear phase.
Historical Signals for Bottom Formation
Analysts note that in the past, market reversals occurred when:
- aSOPR compressed to minimal values;
- loss realization reached peak levels;
- selling pressure gradually decreased.
Currently, based on these indicators, the market is in what is referred to as the “stress zone,” but it has not yet shown clear signs of mass capitulation. Thus, while aSOPR metrics indicate the presence of bearish sentiment, a definitive reversal has not yet been observed.
Additionally, earlier, the founder of Jan3 and developer of the AQUA Wallet cryptocurrency wallet, Samson Moe, expressed the opinion that the current decline in Bitcoin is an anomaly and that the bottom has already been reached.