On-chain metrics indicate the end of a prolonged capitulation of Bitcoin miners, which may herald a reversal in the market for this cryptocurrency. In particular, the Hash Ribbon indicator is approaching a recovery signal after nearly three months of mass sell-offs among miners — one of the longest periods in the history of observations.
This is reported by Business • Media
Hash Ribbon: Financial Stress of Miners and Market Signals
Hash Ribbon compares the 30-day and 60-day moving averages of the Bitcoin network’s hash rate. This indicator shows that when miners experience maximum financial pressure and are forced to shut down equipment and sell cryptocurrency, the market often reaches local or global lows. Capitulation among miners occurs during periods when mining revenues do not cover operational costs, leading less efficient participants to exit the market.
“After a prolonged period of pressure on miners, Bitcoin is showing signs of potential bottom formation. One of the key on-chain indicators — Hash Ribbon — is nearing a recovery signal after three months of miner capitulation, one of the longest in history, according to Glassnode.”
In February 2026, the situation for Bitcoin miners significantly worsened: the average cost of mining rose to approximately $87,000, while the market price fell to $60,000. Such a gap typically indicates a bearish phase in the market. Moreover, in December 2025, Bitcoin miners were already recording substantial losses as daily revenue dropped below average mining costs.
The signal for the end of capitulation appears when the 30-day average hash rate crosses the 60-day average from below — this indicates a return of miners to the network and reduced pressure. Historically, such moments have coincided with increased demand and accumulation of Bitcoin.
Since November of last year, when Hash Ribbon entered a negative phase, Bitcoin has fallen from around $90,000 to $60,000 in early February, and subsequently partially recovered to $65,000.
Changes in Mining Difficulty and Market Behavior
Additional pressure on miners has been caused by an increase in mining difficulty: on February 19, 2026, this metric rose by 14.73% to reach 144.40 T, while the average hash rate was 961.53 EH/s. Despite the challenging conditions, the hash rate began to rise, which may indicate a return of confidence among market participants.
Currently, the price of Bitcoin remains below the average cost of mining (approximately $66,000), which was last observed in November 2022, when the market hit a bottom of $15,500. Similar phases of capitulation, of which there have been about 20 since 2011, often coincided with market lows — particularly in 2015, 2018, and 2022. Prospects suggest that the worst part of the 50% correction is already behind us, and the market may be transitioning to a recovery phase.
At the same time, even large companies are forced to respond to the difficult situation: Bitdeer completely liquidated 943 BTC from reserves, sold all newly mined coins, and reduced corporate holdings to zero. Additionally, the company announced it was raising $300 million through the issuance of convertible bonds amid falling stock prices.