CryptoQuant analysts note that the Puell Multiple has been in the discount zone for three months, indicating a prolonged period of pressure on the Bitcoin market. Since November 2025, the indicator has shown a downward trend, remaining in this zone, which has historically been considered favorable for accumulating cryptocurrency. However, the current situation is different — the market is experiencing heightened bearish sentiment.
This is reported by Business • Media
Reduction of Miners’ Reserves and Increasing Pressure
Experts estimate that the average duration of the Puell Multiple in the discount zone is about 200 days, meaning the current cycle is approximately at the midpoint of this interval. This state of affairs may signal further declines in Bitcoin’s price.
Bitcoin miners are currently under significant pressure due to falling profits and declining asset prices. This particularly affects smaller companies, forcing them to shut down equipment and exit the market to minimize losses. If Bitcoin’s price continues to decrease, it will only exacerbate the trend of reducing reserves, which have already been declining for the fourth consecutive year and currently stand at around 1.8 million BTC.
Increase in Losses and Market Trend Shift
“The percentage of Bitcoin supply in loss (Supply in Loss, %) has started to rise again. Historically, such a change has marked the initial phase of bear cycles, when losses extend beyond short-term holders and gradually affect long-term participants.”
By the end of January 2026, this indicator shows an increase, characteristic of the beginning of bear markets. In previous cycles — 2014, 2018, and 2022 — similar dynamics were observed even before the market bottom was reached, while prices continued to fall. The true bottom was formed only after losses affected a broader range of asset holders.
And although the current values of the indicator have not yet reached historical capitulation levels, the direction of change indicates a transition of the market to a bearish trend structure, rather than a temporary correction within a growth phase.
In addition to market factors, weather conditions in the U.S. have also impacted the industry. Extreme cold has led to mass shutdowns of mining equipment: over 35% of Bitcoin’s hash rate was temporarily offline, and StandardHash CEO Leano Liu reported that approximately 1.3 million machines were halted.
Despite the current pressure, Bernstein analysts predict a potential reversal of the bear cycle in the first half of 2026. According to their estimates, Bitcoin could reach a bottom at around $60,000, which corresponds to the historical highs of previous periods.