A recent study by experts from the London Business School and Yale University sheds light on the mechanisms of the Polymarket platform. According to the analysis of over 1.7 million accounts and more than 210,000 markets from 2023 to 2025, it was found that only a small fraction of traders — approximately 3% — provide the main accuracy of forecasts and achieve consistent profits.
This is reported by Business • Media
The Advantage of Experienced Traders and the Role of Insiders
According to the authors’ findings, the group of “experienced winners” constitutes only 3.14% of users. These traders are capable not only of accurately assessing short-term price fluctuations but also of predicting the outcomes of key market events. Together with market makers, they accumulate over 30% of the platform’s total profits, remaining a minority among all participants.
“About 3% of accounts provide the majority of accurate pricing.”
At the same time, over 60% of users systematically lose money, effectively financing the profitability for a small group of professionals. Researchers note that about 67% of accounts belong to inexperienced or unprofitable traders, who account for the bulk of losses.
Profitability is not always an indicator of real skills: only 12% of the most profitable accounts truly belong to the group of qualified participants. To determine the role of randomness in the results, researchers conducted 10,000 simulations for each trader. It turned out that 60% of the so-called “lucky winners” lost their profits upon re-evaluation, while 44% of true professionals maintained their status across different data samples.
The Impact of Insider Information and Risks for the Platform
A separate section of the study is dedicated to insider activity. The authors identified 1,950 accounts that were opened just before significant events and closed immediately after. Such traders influence market prices 7–12 times more powerfully per dollar than experienced participants; however, their activity is episodic and does not improve overall forecast accuracy.
The study provides an example where three accounts collectively wagered over $630,000 on a change of power in Venezuela just before the start of a military operation. This case coincided with the first investigation by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regarding potential insider activity on similar platforms.
The authors conclude that prediction markets like Polymarket reflect more of the “wisdom of an informed minority” rather than the collective opinion of users. Meanwhile, the majority of traders systematically lose money, financing the profits of professionals and insiders.
Disclaimer: This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute gambling advertising or an invitation to participate in gambling. The mention of Polymarket is made solely within the context of a review of the digital asset market and is not intended to promote or endorse the platform.