CryptoQuant analysts have reported an increase in losses among short-term Bitcoin holders. Over the past few weeks, the price of Bitcoin has remained below the average cost basis for new buyers, creating pressure on this category of investors.
This is reported by Business • Media
Capitulation of Short-Term Players: Market Pressure and Owner Behavior
According to CryptoQuant data, since October 30, 2025, Bitcoin has been trading below the realized price of short-term holders (STH) — around $104,000. This indicates that most recent buyers are in the loss zone. The STH group includes addresses that have held Bitcoin for less than 155 days. The STH MVRV metric, which reflects the ratio between the current market price and the average purchase price, is used to assess their profitability. The current STH MVRV value is in the range of 0.87–0.90, confirming that new investors are currently “underwater.”
The market price of Bitcoin is now around $89,500, creating a significant gap from the cost basis for short-term players. Realized Profit & Loss data indicate an active phase of loss realization: since the end of October, STH exiting the market have recorded average losses of -12.6%. This resembles a capitulation process more than a typical holding of the asset. Analysts estimate that during local price rebounds, investors are reducing their positions rather than increasing them, while Bitcoin consolidates near the $90,000 mark.
Market Outlook and Expert Opinions
Shivam Thakral, CEO of the Indian cryptocurrency exchange BuyUCoin, noted that the current situation does not necessarily lead to mass forced selling. In his view, the risk of capitulation becomes particularly high if Bitcoin loses key cost levels for recent buyers, especially those who entered the asset through ETFs or are institutional investors.
“The fact that new whales have gone ‘underwater’ does not automatically mean forced selling. The risk of capitulation increases if Bitcoin loses key cost levels for recent buyers, especially in ETF or institutional investor entry zones.”
According to CryptoQuant experts, such prolonged loss periods for STH are usually accompanied by a “cleaning out of weak hands” and a redistribution of the asset in favor of more confident investors. The recovery of Bitcoin’s price to the realized cost basis for STH (around $104,000) has not yet occurred, so new market participants remain under pressure. This indicates that the market is in a transitional phase of the cycle, rather than in a classic bearish phase.
In October 2025, Bitcoin set a new all-time high, exceeding $125,000. As of today, its price hovers around $86,054, according to TradingView.
Earlier, CryptoQuant analysts also noted that whale transaction flows on Binance have reached their lowest levels since 2018.