Analyst from CryptoQuant, known by the pseudonym AxelAdlerJr, has predicted that the peak of the current bull cycle in the Bitcoin market will occur in October-November 2025. According to his observations, more than 500 days have passed since the halving, indicating that the final stage of the market cycle is approaching.
This is reported by Business • Media
Investor Dynamics and the Role of Institutional Demand
The expert notes that the Value Days Destroyed (VDD) indicator, which reflects the volume of coins being sold, sharply increased in March when Bitcoin reached the $70,000 mark. However, subsequently, when the price rose to $98,000 and $117,000, the waves of selling were less significant. This indicates that long-term investors are not liquidating their assets en masse but are gradually selling them off, which ensures a more stable situation in the market.
“Such segmented selling indicates a more resilient restructuring — largely due to institutional demand: supply comes in batches immediately after new all-time highs, and the market absorbs it, leading to more extended peaks,” the expert noted.
Expectations for the Final Peak and Changes in Market Behavior
According to AxelAdlerJr, the final peak of the cycle will be associated with the triggering of the so-called Peak Flag — a moment when the market price of Bitcoin exceeds the realized value of long-term holders’ assets by approximately 11 times. This moment, in the analyst’s opinion, will be accompanied by active selling from experienced investors and short-term volatility. Most likely, this will happen in October or November 2025.
The analyst also emphasized that the current cycle is characterized by lower volatility — whereas previously long-term holders sold assets after each significant price spike, now a massive sell-off occurred even before the halving, and subsequent sales are happening in parts. This makes the market more mature and resilient to sharp fluctuations.
Additionally, according to estimates from other analysts, negative market sentiment (FUD) could signal a new rise in Bitcoin’s price.