The scale of the shadow economy in Ukrainian retail has reached a critical level: according to various estimates, up to 45% of the entire retail sector operates outside the tax system. Experts note that the total volume of retail trade in Ukraine exceeds ₴2 trillion per year.
This is reported by Business • Media
The share of the ten largest chains, including ATB, Silpo, Aurora, Fora, Rozetka, Novus, Metro, Rush (EVA), Omega (Varus), and Foodcom (Big Pocket), amounts to only ₴529.2 billion, which is just over 25% of the total volume. This indicates a significant presence of small and medium retail, a portion of which operates in the shadows.
Increasing Shadow Economy in the Market
If prior to the full-scale war the shadow economy was estimated at around 30%, by 2025 this figure could exceed 45%. Thus, nearly ₴1 trillion in turnover bypasses the tax system, leading to significant budget losses—both through tax evasion and through the use of gray imports and smuggling.
Local Retailers in Focus
Among food retailers in Ukraine, 82% are local players, and it is among them that the highest number of violations is recorded. These lost resources could have been directed towards supporting the army, developing infrastructure, or social programs.