According to economist Tetiana Bohdan, if the situation with Ukraine’s balance of payments and external financing does not improve in the next two years, the country faces serious economic consequences. In particular, there could be a significant reduction in the reserves of the National Bank of Ukraine and a sharp decline in the exchange rate of the hryvnia. Such devaluation of the currency could provoke a banking crisis and a corporate debt crisis.
This is reported by Business • Media
Forecast of External Assistance and Risks to the Economy
In 2025, the Ukrainian government expects to receive international financial assistance amounting to $33.1 billion from the European Union, $15 billion from the United States, $3.5 billion from Canada, $1 billion each from the United Kingdom and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), as well as $2.2 billion from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and $0.5 billion from Japan. At the same time, contributions from external donors totaling $9.1 billion will be deferred to 2026 and 2027.
Possible Scenarios for the Development of the Situation
According to the expert, the situation with external financing will worsen in 2026. Commitments from international donors for that year amount to only about $17.3 billion, while utilizing part of the funds received in 2025 could increase their volume to $25.4 billion. However, these amounts are unlikely to cover all the projected gaps in the country’s budget and balance of payments, which objectively increases the risks to the stability of Ukraine’s economy.