According to the new forecast from investment company Dragon Capital, the growth of Ukraine’s real gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025 could accelerate to 3.5-5.5%. This is possible if Ukraine and Russia can reach an agreement on a lasting ceasefire. Otherwise, if the war continues, Ukraine’s economic growth rate may slow to 2.5%.
This is reported by Business • Media
The company has lowered its forecast by 0.5 percentage points for both the prolonged ceasefire scenario and the wartime conditions. It is also expected that annual inflation will begin to decrease in June-July against the backdrop of reduced fundamental pressure and a high comparison base in the food segment.
“We forecast a slowdown in consumer inflation to 8.1% year-on-year by the end of 2025 in the ‘ongoing war’ scenario and to 9-10% in the ‘ceasefire’ scenario,” the forecast states.
Regarding the exchange rate of the hryvnia, Dragon Capital expects that the National Bank of Ukraine will resume controlled and gradual weakening of the hryvnia in the second half of the year. Additionally, the forecast for NBU reserves has been raised to $59 billion, and the year-end exchange rate forecast has been improved to ₴44 per $1, which corresponds to a decrease of 4.4% year-on-year (the previous forecast was ₴45 per $1).