The international rating agency Fitch has maintained Ukraine’s credit rating for foreign currency obligations at ‘Restricted Default’ for the second consecutive time. The debt rating in the national currency remains at ‘CCC+’, indicating very high risks regarding the fulfillment of financial obligations.
This is reported by Business • Media
Situation with Ukraine’s Debt Restructuring
Fitch notes that the decision to maintain the current rating is related to the ongoing process of restructuring Ukraine’s external debts. In particular, the company ‘Ukrenergo’ has managed to reach an agreement with green bondholders regarding the restructuring of securities issued in 2021, amounting to $825 million. At the same time, the GDP warrants worth $2.6 billion and a loan from Cargill of $700 million remain unstructured.
Regarding domestic debt obligations in hryvnias, Ukraine continues to service them properly. This is the basis for a higher rating in the national currency compared to foreign currency.
Forecasts for Financing and Macroeconomic Indicators
According to Fitch’s estimates, in 2025, Ukraine will be able to attract a record amount of external financing — around $55 billion. This significantly exceeds the volumes of 2022–2024, when the country received approximately $25 billion annually. However, starting from 2026, a reduction and less predictability of external financial assistance is expected. As a result, domestic borrowing will continue to increase, especially in 2026.
The agency’s analysts have also downgraded their forecast for Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2025 — from 2.9% to 2.5%. According to their estimates, the average annual inflation in 2025 will be 12.3%, and it will decrease to 6.5% in 2026. At the same time, a significant increase in the state budget deficit is projected — up to 19.3% of GDP in 2025.
‘Ukrenergo’ has reached an agreement with bondholders to restructure green bonds from 2021 amounting to $825 million, while the GDP warrants ($2.6 billion) and the Cargill loan ($0.7 billion) remain unstructured.