If sanctions pressure deepens and global oil prices drop to $30–35 per barrel, the economy of the Russian Federation may face its deepest crisis since the 1990s. This scenario is described in the “risk” forecast of the Central Bank of Russia, which indicates that by 2026, Russian GDP could fall by 2.5–3.5%, and in 2027, by another 2–3%.
This is reported by Business • Media
Export Losses and Rising Inflation
According to estimates from the Central Bank of Russia, if the negative scenario materializes, the country’s export revenues will decrease by $108 billion in 2026 and by another $51 billion in 2027. As a result, the total export earnings will drop to $255 billion, the lowest level since 2005. In comparison, in 2024, Russia plans to earn $414 billion from exports, while last year this figure was $434 billion.
At the same time, inflation in such a scenario could accelerate to 10.5–12.5% — the highest level since 2005. The key interest rate will also rise to 17.5–19.5% in 2026 and 18–20% in 2027.
“The risk” scenario takes into account the intensification of sanctions pressure and the widening discount on Russian goods, as well as a reduction in exports and oil production against the backdrop of falling global prices to $30-35 per barrel in 2026-2028.
Industry and Retail Dive into Crisis
Russian industrial sectors related to the military-industrial complex, which had shown growth since the onset of the full-scale war, are now recording stagnation or production declines for the first time in years. In particular, the production of metal products, which increased by 31.6% last year, decreased by 1.6% in September 2025 compared to the same period last year. The output of tanks and armored vehicles in September increased by only 6%, while in August this figure was 61%.
Overall industrial growth has also slowed to 0.3% compared to 5.6% last year, and compared to December 2024, industrial output fell by 3.6%. Civil sectors have been experiencing a decline throughout the year, and as of September 2025, this figure reached minus 1.1%. The recession in manufacturing has affected 18 out of 24 major sectors, which together account for nearly 80% of the commodity production of the Russian economy.
The situation in retail is also worsening: in the first nine months of 2025, only 27 new brands opened in Russia — half as many as the previous year. At the same time, the share of closed clothing stores in shopping centers in Moscow reached 38%, indicating a deep crisis in the country’s consumer sector.