In July 2025, the average price of Russian Urals oil remained at 4,701 rubles per barrel. This is 11% lower than the benchmark set by the Russian budget for 2025, which is 5,281 rubles per barrel. The main reason for this decline was the significant strengthening of the Russian currency: since the beginning of the year, the ruble has appreciated by nearly 45% against the US dollar. Additionally, global oil prices have fallen by approximately 10%, further reducing Russia’s revenues from energy resource exports.
This is reported by Business • Media
Decline in Oil and Gas Production
Oil production in Russia is also showing negative dynamics. In the first five months of this year, the figure reached 211 million tons — 3.5% less than in the same period of 2024. Meanwhile, natural gas production volumes decreased by 3%, amounting to 290 billion cubic meters.
Despite sanctions, Russia has resumed shipments at its key project “Arctic LNG-2,” which is under international restrictions. This is intended to compensate for losses from the decline in oil and gas exports; however, the situation remains tense.
Budget Deficit and Search for New Revenue Sources
By the end of the first half of 2025, the Russian budget deficit reached 3.69 trillion rubles (approximately 47.3 billion US dollars), which constitutes 1.7% of the country’s GDP. At the same time, the Russian authorities are actively concealing the real state of the economy: over 80% of information on the state open data portal is classified, and many statistical indicators are presented only formally.
Meanwhile, the head of the Federation Council’s budget committee is sounding the alarm, stating that the government urgently needs to find additional sources to fill the budget amid the deteriorating economic situation and falling oil prices. He suggests canceling some tax benefits, conducting large-scale privatization, postponing the implementation of several national projects, and intensifying the fight against shadow employment and “envelope” wages.
The Speaker of the Federation Council emphasized that the main principle of forming the budget for 2026 should be “the strictest economy” of funds. In turn, the head of the Russian Ministry of Finance stressed that funding for security forces and expenses for the war against Ukraine will remain priorities, while some infrastructure projects may be postponed.