After the opening of the maritime corridor at the beginning of 2024, which led to a rapid increase in iron ore exports and allowed Ukraine’s mining complex to recover nearly half of its pre-war volumes, the market is now experiencing a new decline. Since the beginning of 2025, the export figures for Ukrainian iron ore have once again decreased. In the first four months of the year, shipments of ore to foreign markets fell by 10.2% compared to the same period in 2024, totaling only 11.15 million tons.
This is reported by Business • Media
Decline in Foreign Currency Earnings and Industry Crisis
The decline in monetary terms is even more pronounced: during the specified period, foreign currency earnings decreased by nearly 21%. Experts predict that by the end of 2025, the physical volume of ore shipments for export may shrink by 15%, amounting to approximately 27 million tons. As the mining sector remains the third-largest source of foreign currency earnings for Ukraine after the export of oil and corn, it is critical for the country’s economic stability. The crisis trends in this sector significantly impact the overall economic situation of the state.
“Rising electricity and logistics costs are making Ukrainian ore less competitive, while the global market is expected to see a decrease in the average price of ore to $73 per ton.”
Impact of Domestic Costs and Prospects for Foreign Trade
Despite global iron ore prices exceeding levels from 2015-2018, the main challenges for Ukrainian producers remain high domestic costs and unstable demand in global markets. In particular, the rising costs of electricity and logistics negatively affect the competitiveness of Ukrainian ore. Additionally, a decrease in the average price of ore to $73 per ton is forecasted worldwide.
An additional risk for Ukrainian exports is the potential increase in the gap between import and export volumes after the end of the “trade visa-free regime” with the European Union in June. This further complicates the situation for the national mining sector on the global stage.