Ukrainian businesses have significantly adjusted their financial indicators from 2022 to 2024, reducing net debt by $21 billion. This indicates an increase in liquid assets and deposits of enterprises, as well as a decrease in liabilities to Ukrainian banks. According to Alexander Parashiy, a top manager at Concorde Capital, this amount is three times greater than the volume of foreign investments attracted to the country during this period, and twice that of the ‘most successful year in Ukrainian history.’
This is reported by Business • Media
According to the data, business loans decreased by $2-2.8 billion, while deposits increased by $16-17.7 billion. Additionally, enterprises’ investments in government domestic loan bonds (OVDP) rose by approximately $2.4 billion. This deleveraging can be interpreted as potential for further investments by Ukrainian businesses or as a challenge for the country’s economy.
Possible Scenarios for Development After the War
There are several possible scenarios that will determine the future behavior of businesses regarding the use of accumulated funds after the end of hostilities. The first scenario involves a capital outflow from Ukraine exceeding $15 billion, which may occur after the National Bank lifts restrictions on capital withdrawal. In this scenario, the outflow of funds could cover or even exceed the volume of attracted foreign investments, making new investments unlikely.
“As a result, we will face significant outflows in the balance of payments and the banking system, painful devaluation of the hryvnia, and degradation of the economy. Our businesses will actively invest money abroad.”
The second scenario envisions the activation of domestic investments through the accumulation and lending to Ukrainian businesses, which could provide economic growth of up to $40 billion.
According to experts, the future development of the Ukrainian economy in the challenging conditions of war and after its conclusion will depend on the choice of scenario.