The Ministry of Economy of Russia has conducted a significant revision of the main macroeconomic indicators for 2025-2026, substantially reducing the growth forecasts for the economy. According to the updated calculations, the expected GDP growth in 2025 will be only 1% instead of the previous 2.5%, and in 2026 it will be 1.3% compared to the earlier forecast of 2.4%. Expectations regarding investments have also changed: while a growth of 3% was previously anticipated in 2026, a decline of 0.5% is now expected.
This is reported by Business • Media
Foreign Trade and Oil Prices
Despite the overall deterioration of economic forecasts, the Russian agency has a more positive assessment of the situation with foreign trade. In 2025, the surplus in foreign trade of goods is projected to be $106.9 billion, significantly higher than the $86.8 billion predicted in the April version of the forecast. Regarding oil prices, the Ministry of Economy of Russia expects that the price of Brent crude oil will remain at $70 per barrel in 2025-2027, although it was previously forecasted to be $72 in 2026-2027.
Budget Deficit and Military Spending
At the same time, it has become known that the Russian government has raised the planned federal budget deficit for 2025 for the second time this year. If the deficit was previously set at ₽1.2 trillion (0.5% of GDP), it may now increase to ₽5.74 trillion (2.6% of GDP). To cover this deficit, the Ministry of Finance of Russia plans to increase the state debt by ₽2.2 trillion, and the net borrowing volume will reach ₽5.7 trillion.
According to information from Ukrainian foreign intelligence, the Russian government has already approved the draft federal budget for 2026-2028 with a deficit of $54.6 billion. Additionally, in 2026, military spending in Russia will decrease for the first time since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine: it will be reduced to ₽12.6 trillion ($150.5 billion) from this year’s record level of ₽13.5 trillion.
The Ministry of Economy of Russia has updated the macroeconomic forecast for 2025-2026, significantly worsening the main indicators. According to The Bell, the main change is the reduction in GDP growth expectations: the forecast for 2025 has been revised from 2.5% to 1%, and for 2026 from 2.4% to 1.3%. The forecast for investments has also been lowered: in 2026, instead of the previously expected growth of 3%, a decline of 0.5% is now anticipated.