According to analytical data from the CryptoQuant platform, the Bitcoin market is in the late phase of a bull cycle. The main indicators of this are the NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) metric and the structure of realized capitalization, which indicate a shift in market participants’ sentiment.
This is reported by Business • Media
Market Indicators Signal Phase Maturity
The current NUPL level has reached +0.52, which, according to experts, corresponds to a period between optimism and euphoria among Bitcoin holders. Historically, values above 0.5 indicate that most investors are in profit territory, stimulating increased speculative activity. Similar trends were observed during previous cycles in 2017 and 2021.
Additionally, about 97% of the circulating Bitcoin supply is currently in profit. This indicates a high level of confidence among market participants; however, it simultaneously limits the potential for further growth without a consolidation period.
Ownership Structure and the Impact of New Participants
“At the same time, short-term holders (STH) now account for 44% of Bitcoin’s realized capitalization — the highest level in history. This means that long-term holders (LTH) are taking profits, while new market participants are increasingly dominating,” the report states.
Analysts emphasize that such changes in ownership structure have typically accompanied peak market phases. However, the current situation has its peculiarities: the increase in liquidity in stablecoins, the intense influx of institutional capital, and stable investments in Bitcoin ETFs partially reduce selling pressure.
Experts believe that the market is in a “mature speculative phase” supported by external liquidity flows. A transition to a new stage may be possible after a decrease in the share of short-term players, which could signal the return of long-term investors and the beginning of another accumulation phase.
Previously, Citigroup noted that Bitcoin’s dynamics largely depend on the situation in the stock market.