In 2026, Ukraine is expected to see a further decline in average loan and deposit rates, according to leading bankers in the country. Forecasts suggest that, provided there is a gradual economic recovery and a decrease in inflation, loan rates could decrease by 1-1.5 percentage points. At the same time, these expectations remain sensitive to the security situation, the level of hostilities, and the impact of the war on the economic environment.
This is reported by Business • Media
Factors Influencing the Credit Market
Experts in the banking sector note that the potential for lowering loan rates largely depends on macroeconomic stability and the monetary policy of the National Bank of Ukraine. The key interest rate, which has been set at 15.5% since March 2025, remains important. The volumes of macro-financial assistance from international partners will also impact the credit market, contributing to the balancing of the state budget.
“There is potential for further rate reductions, but it is directly linked to macroeconomic stability and the monetary policy of the NBU – particularly the reduction of the key interest rate, which shapes the cost of money (since March 2025, the key interest rate has remained at 15.5%). The overall dynamics of the economy and the rhythm of macro-financial assistance from partner countries, which should cover the gap between income and expenditure and help balance the state budget, may also influence loan rates.”
The key factors that will determine the dynamics of the credit market remain the development of state programs, competition among banks, business demand for credit resources, and the monetary policy of the NBU.
Trends in the Deposit Market in 2026
The deposit policy of banks regarding individuals in 2026 will largely depend on macro-financial indicators: the level of inflation, the effectiveness of the NBU’s actions, and the situation in the currency market. Inflation is expected to slow down to 6.6%, creating favorable conditions for strengthening the positions of hryvnia deposits as a tool for saving and increasing the population’s funds. A reduction in inflationary pressure, if current trends persist, could pave the way for a gradual decrease in the NBU’s key interest rate from 15.5% to 14-14.5%, and corresponding changes may also affect other monetary instruments. Average rates on hryvnia deposits, depending on the term of the funds placement, may decrease by 1 percentage point to 13-13.5% per annum.