The inclusion of Bitcoin in pension plans in the United States, particularly 401(k) plans, could be a powerful driver of the cryptocurrency’s value, pushing its price to $200,000 by the end of 2025. This forecast was made by Andre Dragosh, head of European research at Bitwise.
This is reported by Business • Media
Potential of the Pension Investment Market in Cryptocurrencies
In early August 2025, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order allowing private equity, real estate, and virtual assets to be included in defined contribution (DC) pension plans. Andre Dragosh emphasizes that this move could have an even greater impact on Bitcoin’s price than the launch of spot ETFs.
“This signals the potential for an additional $122 billion in new capital, assuming that a modest 1% of the funds in this sector are allocated to crypto assets. Looking at 401(k) and DC plans overall—they are enormous. And 1% is a relatively conservative estimate for a sector worth $12.2 trillion,” he stated.
However, according to a Bitwise survey, most agents managing pension plans are willing to recommend clients allocate up to 2.5-3% of their portfolio to Bitcoin. This could provide an additional influx of capital of up to $360 billion.
Impact of Fed Decisions and Market Expectations
In comparison, as of August 18, 2025, the total value of spot Bitcoin ETFs reached $150.89 billion. According to Andre Dragosh, the first influx of funds from pension accounts into Bitcoin is expected as early as this fall. If the US Federal Reserve lowers the interest rate in September, the expert predicts that Bitcoin’s price could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025.
At the same time, the chances of a monetary policy easing by the Fed have somewhat decreased following the release of producer price index data in July 2025. This led to a correction in the cryptocurrency market on August 18, including a drop in Bitcoin’s price and an increase in liquidation volumes.