The National Bank of Ukraine notes a gradual improvement in the labor market situation by the end of 2025. The supply of job openings has begun to grow faster than the demand for them, and the number of people who left for abroad has decreased by 0.2 million compared to the previous year.
This is reported by Business • Media
Migration Dynamics and Forecasts for the Coming Years
Recent surveys among businesses indicate a decrease in the number of companies that are downsizing. However, the labor shortage remains a significant issue due to prolonged migration and mobilization processes. The National Bank points out that by the end of the year, the security situation worsened, and the easing of exit rules for young people led to a greater-than-expected outflow of migrants.
“The deterioration of the security situation at the end of the year and the easing of exit rules for young people resulted in a somewhat larger outflow of migrants than anticipated,” writes the NBU.
According to UN data, in 2025, 0.3 million people left Ukraine, while in 2024 this figure was 0.5 million. At the same time, it is projected that in 2026, the net outflow of the population will reach approximately 200,000 people, primarily due to the worsening security situation.
Return of Refugees and Labor Market Prospects
According to the National Bank’s forecasts, the return of Ukrainian refugees is expected to begin as early as 2027, with approximately 100,000 people. In 2028, this process is expected to accelerate, and up to 500,000 people may return home. The main factors for this return are the anticipated reduction in security risks and the overall improvement in the economic situation.
As a result, the labor market will continue to experience a demand for a significant number of workers, which will contribute to a decrease in the unemployment rate and support moderate wage growth. According to NBU estimates, in 2026, real wages in Ukraine will increase by 7% (the same growth is projected for 2025), and in 2027-2028, this figure will be around 6% per year.