The National Bank of Ukraine has released an updated forecast of the country’s main macroeconomic indicators, including inflation, GDP dynamics, unemployment rate, and budget deficit for the coming years.
This is reported by Business • Media
Inflation and GDP: Outlook Until 2027
According to the NBU’s baseline scenario, inflation in Ukraine will decrease to 9.2% by the end of 2025 and approach the target level of 5% by 2027. The main factor contributing to the slowdown in inflation will be the high supply of food products and favorable grain harvests. At the same time, potential risks include electricity shortages, disruptions in supply, and further increases in administratively regulated tariffs.
Inflation in Ukraine, according to the baseline scenario, will decrease to 9.2% by the end of 2025 and approach the target figure of 5% in 2027
The expected GDP growth for 2025 has been revised to 1.9%. The main reasons for this adjustment include infrastructure destruction, losses in gas production capacity, and weaker-than-expected economic results in the second quarter. In 2026, economic growth will remain moderate—around 2%—due to ongoing security risks and energy resource shortages. In 2027, the pace of recovery will accelerate to 2.8% due to increased harvests and active investments in infrastructure reconstruction and the defense sector.
Unemployment Rate, Wage Dynamics, and Budget Deficit
According to the NBU’s forecasts, the unemployment rate in Ukraine will gradually decrease: to 11% in 2025, 10% in 2026, and 9% in 2027. It is expected that real wages will grow by approximately 6% in 2025 and by 4–5% annually in 2026–2027. However, the shortage of skilled labor will remain a significant limiting factor for the production sector.
The state budget deficit in 2025 will be around 25% of GDP, gradually decreasing to 19% in 2026 and 14% in 2027. Budgetary needs are planned to be financed through external support: in 2025, revenues will amount to about $51.5 billion, in 2026—over $45 billion, and in 2027—$39 billion.