The Central Bank of the Russian Federation has presented a risk scenario for economic development, according to which, in the event of additional sanctions and a drop in oil prices to $35 per barrel, the country’s GDP could shrink by 2.5-3.5% in 2026 and by another 2-3% in 2027. Inflation could potentially accelerate to 10-12%, while the key interest rate may rise to 16-18% and 18-20% respectively over the next two years.
This is reported by Business • Media
Decline in Oil Revenues and Economic Stagnation
The head of Sberbank, Herman Gref, stated that the Russian economy has already entered a phase of technical stagnation since the second quarter of 2025. The federal budget of Russia, which is 25% dependent on oil and gas revenues, received 35% less in August 2025 compared to the same period last year and 36% less compared to July. Over the first eight months of 2025, these revenues decreased by 20.2%, totaling 6.03 trillion rubles.
“According to the Ukrainian foreign intelligence, in the first half of 2025, the total results of companies in the Russian oil and gas sector declined by 50.4%. Moreover, 45% of companies ended the half-year with losses amounting to $9.4 billion. Key factors include: the decrease in Urals oil prices from $70 in January to $59.8 in June (-30% in rubles), Western sanctions, a drop in exports, as well as a shortage of tankers and port congestion.”
New Challenges for the Russian Oil and Gas Industry
An additional pressure factor on the Russian market may be the decision by OPEC+ countries to increase oil production quotas, which could lead to further declines in global prices. Furthermore, Canada has reduced the ceiling price on Russian oil by 12% – from $60 to $47.6 per barrel.
In the context of diminishing profitable oil reserves in Russia, which are only expected to last for 25 more years at current production levels, the industry faces the necessity for significant investments and the implementation of new technologies. Without this, production could significantly decrease in the coming years. Given the tightening of Western sanctions and the active refusal of countries to rely on hydrocarbons, by 2050 Russia could reduce its oil production to 171 million tons per year, which is over 66% less than current levels, and completely lose the ability to export oil.