The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) forecasts that the direct impact of the new US import tariffs on Ukrainian exports will be minimal. According to the regulator, in 2024, the share of Ukrainian exports to the US accounted for only 2.2% of total shipments, which is approximately $0.9 billion. Since the US has a trade surplus with Ukraine, the country applied the lowest tariff of 10%. This data is presented in the NBU’s inflation report with an updated macroeconomic forecast for 2025–2027.
This is reported by Business • Media
Impact of Trade Wars on the Ukrainian Economy
According to analysts, the backbone of Ukrainian exports is pig iron, which constitutes 42% of shipments to the US. The export of metallurgical products, in particular, will not undergo significant changes due to the high level of pig iron imports for the American market—approximately 20% in 2023. Previous experience shows that even with the introduction of anti-dumping duties by the US, the export of pipe products (13% of exports to the US) remains stable. Certain types of food products, including butter, honey, and juices, which account for 15.8% of exports, also have stable demand.
“Considering the low price elasticity of food products, their popularity in other markets, and new opportunities for exporters due to the closure of markets for American products, a successful reorientation to other countries and minimal losses for Ukrainian exporters are expected.”
Threat to the Global Economy from Trade Conflicts
An indirect consequence of trade wars will be a slowdown in economic activity in key trading partners of Ukraine, such as the Eurozone and Central and Eastern European countries, which will lead to a decrease in external demand for Ukrainian products. According to analysts, this has been one of the reasons for the reduction of the GDP growth forecast for Ukraine to 3.1% in 2025. At the same time, considering the experience of reallocating global value chains and the fiscal incentives introduced, the NBU believes that the economic slowdown in partner countries will be short-lived and will not have long-term negative consequences for the Ukrainian economy.
Moreover, political uncertainty is increasing, and deglobalization processes are intensifying due to the escalation of trade conflicts worldwide. Forecasts suggest that the duration of these processes may worsen the global economic situation and reduce external demand, negatively impacting Ukrainian exports and the economy as a whole.
The US tariffs on steel and aluminum imports of 25% were introduced on March 12. The main exporters to the US are Canada, Mexico, Brazil, South Korea, and Japan, along with rapidly growing exports from Taiwan and Vietnam. According to data previously reported by GMK Center, the strengthening of trade barriers and global political uncertainty may lead to a slowdown in the global economy, a recession in the US, a reduction in global trade flows, and an increase in inflation.