Analysts at 10x Research believe that Strategy has significant chances of being included in the S&P 500 index if its financial results for the third quarter of 2025 are positive. The probability of inclusion is estimated to be between 60–70%.
This is reported by Business • Media
Forecasts for Strategy’s Inclusion in the S&P 500
In a recent report, experts from 10x Research emphasized that Strategy’s prospects depend on the results of Q3. If the report that the company publishes on October 30, 2025, shows the expected unrealized profit from Bitcoin investments at $3.8 billion, this could be a key factor for the company’s inclusion in the index as early as December 2025. A favorable financial outcome will act as a catalyst for stock growth and increase Strategy’s chances of entering the prestigious index.
“Capitulation always feels like the end until it quietly becomes a new beginning,” the authors noted.
Stock Dynamics and Company Financials
Despite the optimistic forecast regarding the S&P 500 index, there is pessimism in the market regarding Strategy’s stocks. Over the past six months, their value has fallen by nearly 28%. The mNAV (Market-to-Net Asset Value) ratio, which reflects the relationship between market value and the company’s net assets focused on crypto investments, has repeatedly approached the threshold of one but has not fallen below this level.
Additionally, in October 2025, Strategy significantly reduced its Bitcoin purchase volume – only 778 BTC were acquired, which is 78% less compared to September. In contrast, in the second quarter, the company recorded over $14 billion in unrealized profit, which allowed it to qualify for the S&P 500 index, but at that time, Strategy was not included.
The firm’s bonds received a credit rating of B- from S&P Global Ratings. Despite the low rating, Strategy became the first Bitcoin treasury to pass the assessment of this agency.
Previously, analysts at 10x Research reported that investors lost about $17 billion due to overvalued stocks of companies involved in digital asset investments.
Thus, Strategy’s future in the S&P 500 index depends on its financial performance for the third quarter of 2025 and subsequent market dynamics.